VAC 25.00.30 Метеорология, климатология, агрометеорология
UDK 60 Прикладные науки. Общие вопросы
GRNTI 27.35 Математические модели естественных наук и технических наук. Уравнения математической физики
GRNTI 37.21 Метеорология
GRNTI 37.23 Климатология
GRNTI 82.29 Прогнозирование. Футурология
OKSO 01.04.03 Механика и математическое моделирование
OKSO 01.03.03 Механика и математическое моделирование
OKSO 02.03.03 Механика и математическое моделирование
OKSO 03.03.03 Механика и математическое моделирование
OKSO 05.02.03 Метеорология
BBK 6523 Планирование. Экономическое прогнозирование
TBK 6154 Математическое моделирование
TBK 6348 Метеорология. Климатология
BISAC SCI042000 Earth Sciences / Meteorology & Climatology
BISAC SCI092000 Global Warming & Climate Change
The effect of climate changes on mean annual air temperature (MAAT) with AOGCM models in Khuzestan province in Iran is investigated in this study. Seven models of AR4 AOGCM models including HADCM3, CNRMCM3, CSIROMK3.0, GFDLCM2.0, INMCM3.0, IPSLCM4, and BCM2.0 for future period (2040–2069) under A2, B1 and A1B emission scenarios is considered with respect to observed period (1982–2011). For downscaling AOGCMs data, LARS-WG model was used. Investigation of (MAAT) in 9 selected stations during 1982 to 2011 years showed increasing trend of mean slop in all stations. Maximum and minimum increasing changes occurred under A2 scenario in Shahid abbaspour Dam and Dezful stations with 2.1 °C and B1 scenario in Abadan station with 1.3 °C and A1B scenario in Abadan station with 1.9 °C. Spatial analysis of (MAAT) under two GHG emission scenarios for whole of Khuzestan province showed increasing changes from northwest to southeast of study area. The results has also showed that there are more uncertainties in AOGCM models than emission scenarios.
climate changes, air temperature, AOGCM models, Khuzestan province
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